This article originally appeared on Fox News on August 30, 2019.
It’s been just a couple of weeks since the so-called experts were warning of an imminent recession citing the much-hyped “yield curve inversion” as if it were a crystal ball for predicting our economic future. It isn’t.
In fact, the U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations as consumers remain as confident as ever. Could it be that the growing chorus of progressives cheering for an economic downturn is more focused on defeating President Trump in 2020 than on economic reality today? Clearly, that is the case.
The generally accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. So far this year, our gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 3.1 percent in the first quarter and 2 percent in the second, for an average of about 2.6 percent year to date – nowhere near negative territory.
Let’s look at some data that’s come out in the past week to see where the economy is headed.
For the third quarter, which ends Sept. 30, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has a GDP forecasting model called GDPNow.
On Aug. 14 – the day the yield curve inverted and stocks plunged – the third-quarter forecast stood at 1.8 percent. On Friday, it stood at 2 percent.
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